2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby Adunk33 » February 12th, 2018, 1:56 pm

Hacksaw wrote:Weighted seeding odds:
Image


Do these seedings take into account injuries?
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby BirdsEyeView » February 12th, 2018, 2:43 pm

:+1:

I can't believe we are favored 70/30 over Drake without Evans and Fayne
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby Hacksaw » February 12th, 2018, 3:24 pm

Adunk33 wrote:
Do these seedings take into account injuries?


The odds are based off of Sagarin's Predictor ratings. To my knowledge, there is no account of injuries in these ratings.
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby pafan » February 12th, 2018, 4:15 pm

Hacksaw is correct. PREDICTOR does use any data about rosters, such as injuries, suspensions, players facing bench warrants, etc.
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby Adunk33 » February 12th, 2018, 5:33 pm

Hacksaw wrote:
Adunk33 wrote:
Do these seedings take into account injuries?


The odds are based off of Sagarin's Predictor ratings. To my knowledge, there is no account of injuries in these ratings.


Thank you
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby Redbird Recon » February 14th, 2018, 8:39 am

pafan wrote:Hacksaw is correct. PREDICTOR does use any data about rosters, such as injuries, suspensions, players facing bench warrants, etc.

Solid troll.
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby TSmithBJJ » February 14th, 2018, 12:46 pm

Evansville the slight favorite in the SIU @ Evansville... I know they're a good team when they play at home, but I'll definitely have to pick the underdog in this matchup.
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby Hacksaw » February 15th, 2018, 8:46 am

The final 32,768 scenarios (unweighted):
Image
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby Hacksaw » February 15th, 2018, 8:46 am

Weighted scenarios:
Image
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby BirdsEyeView » February 15th, 2018, 9:00 am

Congrats to Drake on avoiding Drake night for the first time in YEARS!
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby lime » February 15th, 2018, 9:07 am

BirdsEyeView wrote:Congrats to Drake on avoiding Drake night for the first time in YEARS!


it's 99.9% but not guaranteed yet.
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby BuBrave2006 » February 15th, 2018, 10:19 am

A Thursday potentially without Drake or Bradley? How long has that been?
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