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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

PostPosted: January 25th, 2018, 4:12 pm
by BirdsEyeView
Redhawk wrote:
BirdsEyeView wrote:
Redbirds4Life wrote:This is depressing.....Dirty Dan and the boys need to figure it out quick


Depressing - yes. Surprising - no.

Hacksaw, love these you do. Appreciate it!


Regardless of the early injuries and the ineligibility of Copeland I am surprised that
half way through the year the Redbirds are playing this bad.

I thought they would be better on offense but how bad they are on defense
is shocking for a Muller coached team!


I agree, but I am not surprised after the past few games.

Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

PostPosted: January 25th, 2018, 6:03 pm
by bleach
The way I read the chart, the Bears SHOULD finish top 3.
Watch how far that drops as the season winds down. Lusk teams always get worse as the season ends.

Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

PostPosted: January 31st, 2018, 3:21 pm
by MSUDuo
Can we get this updated after tonight?

Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

PostPosted: January 31st, 2018, 3:25 pm
by TSmithBJJ
MSUDuo wrote:Can we get this updated after tonight?




YES, PLEASE!!!

Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

PostPosted: February 1st, 2018, 11:20 am
by Hacksaw
With 7 games to go, here are the simulation results:
Image

Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

PostPosted: February 1st, 2018, 11:29 am
by BirdsEyeView
Hacksaw wrote:With 7 games to go, here are the simulation results:
Image


Thank you!

Right now, the 4 Illinois schools showcase seeds #1-4!!!

Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

PostPosted: February 1st, 2018, 11:29 am
by Hacksaw
Thursday odds per team based on win count:
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Expected seed based on win count:
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7-11 is a near lock for Thursday
8-10 is a 71% chance for a Thursday game
9-9 is a 90% chance to avoid Thursday

Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

PostPosted: February 1st, 2018, 11:43 am
by Hacksaw
Not sure if people care this much, but with such parity in the league this year, I find these team by team charts quite interesting:

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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

PostPosted: February 1st, 2018, 11:59 am
by Old School MVC
Hacksaw wrote:With 7 games to go, here are the simulation results:
Image


THANK YOU SO MUCH Hacksaw!!! You don't know how much we all love this!!

One thing I take from this is that I find it kind of amazing that Bradley, who is in 2nd place, has a 5.7% chance to win the Valley, and a 5.4% chance of playing on Thursday. This will be a fun and exciting month of February!

Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

PostPosted: February 1st, 2018, 12:23 pm
by Rambler63
BirdsEyeView wrote:Right now, the 4 Illinois schools showcase seeds #1-4!!!


Wait, I was told that too many Illinois schools was the problem...