MVFC Prediction Time

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MVFC Prediction Time

Postby CaseyGarrisonforPrez » July 20th, 2014, 7:18 pm

It's time to get this thing going, football is less than six weeks away. I am going to go out on a ledge and predict that NDSU does not win the conference this year. They lose the all world QB, something like 13 starters, and Klieman is no Bohl. I have the top four right now as this:

1. South Dakota State
2. NDSU
3. Missouri State
4. UNI

I haven't really given much thought beyond the top 4. I don't think it really matters. Maybe, just maybe SIUC makes a run at top 4.

I just really love the RB at South Dakota State and I think the Jackrabbits have the experience and talent to make a run at the title, but I suspect the national champ does not reside in this conference this year.
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Re: MVFC Prediction Time

Postby PantherSigEp » July 21st, 2014, 6:21 am

UNI wins the conference. Panthers make a deep playoff run, hopefully bringing home the national title. I think NDSU and UNI are the only ones with the potential to do it although I'm not well read on some of the other teams. MVFC should get 4 teams into the playoffs
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Re: MVFC Prediction Time

Postby MSUDuo » July 23rd, 2014, 11:04 pm

CaseyGarrisonforPrez wrote:It's time to get this thing going, football is less than six weeks away. I am going to go out on a ledge and predict that NDSU does not win the conference this year. They lose the all world QB, something like 13 starters, and Klieman is no Bohl. I have the top four right now as this:

1. South Dakota State
2. NDSU
3. Missouri State
4. UNI

I haven't really given much thought beyond the top 4. I don't think it really matters. Maybe, just maybe SIUC makes a run at top 4.

I just really love the RB at South Dakota State and I think the Jackrabbits have the experience and talent to make a run at the title, but I suspect the national champ does not reside in this conference this year.


Put down the pipe and back away slowly.

One can only hope this is the final nail in the coffin. I doubt it though.
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Re: MVFC Prediction Time

Postby uniftw » July 24th, 2014, 2:56 pm

CaseyGarrisonforPrez wrote:It's time to get this thing going, football is less than six weeks away. I am going to go out on a ledge and predict that NDSU does not win the conference this year. They lose the all world QB, something like 13 starters, and Klieman is no Bohl. I have the top four right now as this:

1. South Dakota State
2. NDSU
3. Missouri State
4. UNI

I haven't really given much thought beyond the top 4. I don't think it really matters. Maybe, just maybe SIUC makes a run at top 4.

I just really love the RB at South Dakota State and I think the Jackrabbits have the experience and talent to make a run at the title, but I suspect the national champ does not reside in this conference this year.
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Re: MVFC Prediction Time

Postby CaseyGarrisonforPrez » July 24th, 2014, 4:38 pm

I think it is a legitimate possibility. I know picking anybody besides NDSU is really considered edgy stuff but I just have a gut feeling the Bizon won't do it this year.

And I think the Bears could make the playoffs and still get rid of Terry Allen if he retires. That would be best case scenario for all parties.
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Re: MVFC Prediction Time

Postby PantherSigEp » July 24th, 2014, 8:53 pm

CaseyGarrisonforPrez wrote:I think it is a legitimate possibility. I know picking anybody besides NDSU is really considered edgy stuff but I just have a gut feeling the Bizon won't do it this year.

And I think the Bears could make the playoffs and still get rid of Terry Allen if he retires. That would be best case scenario for all parties.


Its not the fact you didn't pick the Bison to get first that reaffirms your looney-ness to us, including your own MSU brethren. Its the fact that you believe that, against all odds and common sense, this is the year that Terry Allen decides, "Well sure, why don't we try winning?" As if this whole time he were just playing a practical joke on the entire conference for the past 8 years.

The times...they ain't a changin' boy
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Re: MVFC Prediction Time

Postby CaseyGarrisonforPrez » July 27th, 2014, 9:03 pm

PantherSigEp wrote:
CaseyGarrisonforPrez wrote:
Its not the fact you didn't pick the Bison to get first that reaffirms your looney-ness to us, including your own MSU brethren. Its the fact that you believe that, against all odds and common sense, this is the year that Terry Allen decides, "Well sure, why don't we try winning?" As if this whole time he were just playing a practical joke on the entire conference for the past 8 years.

The times...they ain't a changin' boy


On a pure emotional fan level I can see what you are saying. However, I used a lot of the metrics that Phil Steele uses when I made my predictions: loss of starters, loss of lettermen, number of starts missed due to injury, turnover margin, and close losses. I tried to apply it to FCS and the MVFC in particular. I then kind of adjusted a little bit due to my own perceptions of toughness of schedule and some overall other factors. So it is a mix of science and gut instinct. With a dash of homerism too.
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Re: MVFC Prediction Time

Postby uniftw » July 31st, 2014, 11:06 am

CaseyGarrisonforPrez wrote:
PantherSigEp wrote:
CaseyGarrisonforPrez wrote:
Its not the fact you didn't pick the Bison to get first that reaffirms your looney-ness to us, including your own MSU brethren. Its the fact that you believe that, against all odds and common sense, this is the year that Terry Allen decides, "Well sure, why don't we try winning?" As if this whole time he were just playing a practical joke on the entire conference for the past 8 years.

The times...they ain't a changin' boy


On a pure emotional fan level I can see what you are saying. However, I used a lot of the metrics that Phil Steele uses when I made my predictions: loss of starters, loss of lettermen, number of starts missed due to injury, turnover margin, and close losses. I tried to apply it to FCS and the MVFC in particular. I then kind of adjusted a little bit due to my own perceptions of toughness of schedule and some overall other factors. So it is a mix of science and gut instinct. With a dash of homerism too.
MSU is 7th in the valley alone in returning players...

http://home.comcast.net/~keepersfootbal ... ngconf.htm

More likely scenario of how the conference plays out


Northern Iowa 11-1 8-0
North Dakota State 11-1 7-1
South Dakota State 9-3 6-2
Southern Illinois 9-3 6-2
Youngstown State 8-4 5-3
Illionis State 7-5 4-4
Missouri State 4-8 2-6
South Dakota 2-10 1-7
Western Illinois 3-9 1-7
Iniana State 0-12 0-8

SDSU and SIU tie for 3rd. Tie break is as follows
H/H - They didn't play
Record vs common opponents - same at 6-2
GPI - can't predict that **** so I'm going with SDSU having the tougher OOC as the edge.


Playoffs I have 4 MVFC programs
UNI top 2 seed
NDSU top 4 seed
SDSU - first round bye
SIU first round bye
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Re: MVFC Prediction Time

Postby CaseyGarrisonforPrez » July 31st, 2014, 8:24 pm

You went all out by predicting each team's record. I am hoping to have the chance to make full scale predictions like that in the next few days myself.

Naturally I think you have greatly underestimated MSU. I have heard through the grapevine that some of the players have really looked good in 7 on 7 drills this summer and that TA thinks he has a pretty good group. They will have to prove it in the fall to have outsiders believe of course. Which is how it should be. They have underperformed for years.

The more I reflect on things, the more I think UNI could be pretty good. I don't see them going undefeated in conference, but beating NDSU and winning the league is very possible.

The last thing I found interesting in your predictions just going by record: NDSU appears to defeat Iowa State in the opener. I just cannot see them beating a well coached Paul Rhoads team. They snuck up on K-State so they will not be able to do that again to another Big XII school.
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Re: MVFC Prediction Time

Postby PantherSigEp » July 31st, 2014, 9:54 pm

[quote="CaseyGarrisonforPrez"]You went all out by predicting each team's record. I am hoping to have the chance to make full scale predictions like that in the next few days myself.

Naturally I think you have greatly underestimated MSU. I have heard through the grapevine that some of the players have really looked good in 7 on 7 drills this summer and that TA thinks he has a pretty good group. They will have to prove it in the fall to have outsiders believe of course. Which is how it should be. They have underperformed for years.

The more I reflect on things, the more I think UNI could be pretty good. I don't see them going undefeated in conference, but beating NDSU and winning the league is very possible.

The last thing I found interesting in your predictions just going by record: NDSU appears to defeat Iowa State in the opener. I just cannot see them beating a well coached Paul Rhoads team. They snuck up on K-State so they will not be able to do that again to another Big XII school.[/quote]


There was so much wrong with this post to begin with (what are people supposed to say, "Oh yeah, the players have looked so average this year, we're really excited for another underwhelming year of Bear football"? C'mon dude get a clue, if it looks like a duck and sounds like a duck etc, etc...) but my goodness.
1) Paul Rhoads is eccentric and lovable but he is not a good coach. He's hardly a decent coach. He's done nothng significant during his tenure outside of some crappy bowl games and his team this year will be worse than the last one.
2) NDSU didn't sneak up on anyone, it was the first freaking game of the year and they were the 2x defending champions. How does that slip by KSU? It doesn't, they were simply the worse team.
3) Iowa State is awful and is ridiculously thin on defense. The Bison might have lost some good players but overall they return a very strong defensive unit and should be able to win this game. Not saying it's a guarantee but 7 times out of 10 I bet they win this matchup. Please don't refer to ISU as a Big XII school, they've been severely outclassed in that conference for the better part of the last 10-15 years. It's very sad how bad they are.
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Re: MVFC Prediction Time

Postby CaseyGarrisonforPrez » August 1st, 2014, 9:14 am

PantherSigEp wrote:There was so much wrong with this post to begin with (what are people supposed to say, "Oh yeah, the players have looked so average this year, we're really excited for another underwhelming year of Bear football"? C'mon dude get a clue, if it looks like a duck and sounds like a duck etc, etc...) but my goodness.
1) Paul Rhoads is eccentric and lovable but he is not a good coach. He's hardly a decent coach. He's done nothng significant during his tenure outside of some crappy bowl games and his team this year will be worse than the last one.
2) NDSU didn't sneak up on anyone, it was the first freaking game of the year and they were the 2x defending champions. How does that slip by KSU? It doesn't, they were simply the worse team.
3) Iowa State is awful and is ridiculously thin on defense. The Bison might have lost some good players but overall they return a very strong defensive unit and should be able to win this game. Not saying it's a guarantee but 7 times out of 10 I bet they win this matchup. Please don't refer to ISU as a Big XII school, they've been severely outclassed in that conference for the better part of the last 10-15 years. It's very sad how bad they are.


1. Paul Rhoads has won huge games at ISU: he beat #2 Oklahoma State in 2011 keeping them from the national championship game, beat the Big XII North champs Nebraska in 2009, beat a ranked Texas team in 2010, and beat a ranked TCU team in 2012.

2. We'll simply have to disagree on this one. I doubt back to back FCS titles mean much to the K-State kids. I think they learned the hard way that you cannot overlook FCS opposition however. I definitely think there was flukish quality to that game though.

3. Iowa State is near the bottom of the Big XII most years. I do believe they will be significantly better this year on offense with the QB back and Mark Mangino as OC. Their defense is a concern with a high attrition rate particularly on the D-Line. But I still think they are improved from last year and probably better than Kansas and West Virginia in the Big XII. I expect them to beat NDSU and I know that goes against the grain, but this game is getting a lot of hype. No chance ISU looks past them.
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Re: MVFC Prediction Time

Postby PantherSigEp » August 1st, 2014, 9:41 am

Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in awhile Casey. To assume Rhoades is a good coach simply because he's pulled off a couple upset over the past 5 years is a horrible excuse for why these same teams has been so terrible for the other 9-10+ games of the season.

I find it hilarious and ironic that you fault North Dakota St for being "looked past" by KSU (no chance, NDSU had really talented players and was a great team, KSU was decent but that loss was no fluke) and yet you've propped ISU up for pulling off the upset in situations where the exact same scenario happened. You can't tell me ISU won those games because they were just as well coached and talented as Okie St and company. Please Casey, at least save yourself a little face.

The saddest thing is that ISU could go winless this year and Cyclone fans would still exhalt Rhoades as savior of program and claim that he's just stocking up for 2015/2016. A lot of them are also Cubs fans so I think they let their excuses blend together pretty regularly.
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