Big dance possibilities

[TheAsianSensation]

ISU's in trouble. They compare on a similar level to Nevada, UNC-W, and a couple others.

Wichita does too, frankly, but they have the analytics crowd on its side. As I've mentioned already, I'm never seen a team's resume and analytics profile be such polar opposites.

I am wondering how many of those 55 brackets have Illinois St as the autobid, and how many as an at-large. I'm willing to bet 55 and 0, respectively.

[TheAsianSensation]

I was doing resume comparisons, and Wichita vs. Middle Tennessee fascinated me. Actually, all comparisons involving Wichita fascinated me, just because of the stark differences between WSU and power conference teams. But WSU vs. MTSU:

Middle Tennessee (23-4) (14-1 CUSA) RPI 31 SoS 124
Vital signs: 13-2 R/N, non-con SoS 16, 2-1 vs. Top 50, 4-1 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Vandy, @Belmont? N-UNCW? @Ole Miss?
Bad losses: Tennessee St at home, @UTEP is hideous. Georgia St technically counts too

Wichita St (24-4) (15-1 MVC) RPI 41 SoS 155
Vital signs: 10-3 R/N, non-con SoS 182, 1-4 vs. Top 50, 2-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Illinois St, @Colorado St, and we’re done here
Bad losses: Okie State is the worst

Non-con SoS. Wichita 182, MT 16.
- Both scheduled a MTT. Wichita went to Atlantis, got a win outside the Top 150 and nothing else. MT scheduled the Challenge in Music City and got access to a Top 50 neutral site win (UNC-W isn't a trivial win).
- Both scheduled 2 power conference teams. Wichita got the two Oklahomas and split (and watched Oklahoma become irrelevant). MT scheduled two down SEC teams, but watched as Ole Miss became RPI 70 and Vandy RPI 49. To be fair, MT did win both games, and winning those count for something.
- Both scheduled 2 teams from lesser conferences expected to contend for conference titles and to help the SoS numbers. Wichita ended up with SDSU (tanking in the Summit) and LBSU (dear God). MT ended up with Belmont (now a Top 100 win!) and Murray St (who has tanked as well).
- Both got access to an upper-major team. Wichita beat Colorado St, who is of modest help. MT got to go to VCU (and lost, but no harm done).
- Wichita's cupcakes are RPI 305, 291, and 251. MT's cupcakes are RPI 237 and 215. (bonus fun fact: Evansville's the 3rd worst team they played in the non-con).

Wichita did everything better in an attempt to schedule up, and would up 166 spots behind. And the worst part is that the committee doesn't care. They just care about end result.

In the end, MT has to be ahead. Both are similarly competent on the road, but MT has the better collection of signature wins (N-UNCW, @Belmont, Vandy and @Ole Miss >> Illinois St, @CSU, and UNI 2x), which I think balance out the worse losses. And the SoS number is the kicker.

I think if WSU and MT flipped non-con schedules...MT would've lost the games WSU did but probably handled everyone else. WSU probably loses to VCU, but probably doesn't lose the other 2 games. Maybe they do lose one of @Ole Miss, @Belmont, and N-UNC-W. And Wichita would be a lock with the non-con SoS and MT would be out. Such is life.

[shockem]

So you let them both in and knock out some middling P5 team with a .500 conference record

[TheObserver]

So you let them both in and knock out some middling P5 team with a .500 conference record

With the way some "experts" are going this year, those conference records will be well below .500.

[municup14]

If Wichita and the Birds play in the championship game I don't
See how the loser can be left out.But,heaven for bid if we let 2
Mid major teams in from the same conference.A conference
That has proven that if one gets in they can wreck havoc on their party

[musiccitybulldog]

This might be a year like 2008. In the championship game Drake won by a large margin and Ill State stayed home.

This year could be the same type of scenario. If its close maybe both go. If its a blow out one way or the other, the winner goes.

Lose before the championship game, long shot of making it.

[shockem]

I don't see the championship game being a blowout. First of all, I can't see the Shockers getting blown out by anyone in the league. Secondly, Marshall sometimes will blow out a team to send a message, or make a statement. If he's winning the championship game by a large margin, there's no statement required. He just needs the win the get in the tournament and will likely pull back the throttle at some point. There's no reason at all to drill an opponent in the conference championship.

[TheObserver]

Depends on the opponent.

You can't play for seed placement anymore?

[Stickboy46]

I don't see the championship game being a blowout. First of all, I can't see the Shockers getting blown out by anyone in the league. Secondly, Marshall sometimes will blow out a team to send a message, or make a statement. If he's winning the championship game by a large margin, there's no statement required. He just needs the win the get in the tournament and will likely pull back the throttle at some point. There's no reason at all to drill an opponent in the conference championship.

If there is one other coach in the league that Marshall will want to drill in the championship game it's Muller. He wasn't too fond of Muller calling that timeout with less than a minute to go in Normal.

[TheAsianSensation]

How you lose in a championship game means as much to a team's at-large chances as everyone's opinion here. None. If there was ever gonna be a time it mattered, it would've been 2006.