Bubble watch

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Re: Bubble watch

Postby BirdsEyeView » March 12th, 2017, 8:20 pm

Cdizzle wrote:They do when you want to talk crap on the other teams in the league.


The topic at hand was this year's ISUr resume. No team provided a quality win for us except WSU. If this were a convo about last year's ISUr resume or the 5 years prior then sure no room to talk...

However, this topic is about this year and why we did not get an at large...
The other 8 teams absolutely impacted this league only getting 1 in. We were 17-1 in Conference. When was the last Valley team to have that record and NOT get into the big dance? Our league was very bad 3-10 this year.

You challenge a pretty well understood point about this year's version of the MVC with random stats about the past 7 years. Head scratching.
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Re: Bubble watch

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Re: Bubble watch

Postby Cdizzle » March 12th, 2017, 8:32 pm

BirdsEyeView wrote:
Cdizzle wrote:They do when you want to talk crap on the other teams in the league.


The topic at hand was this year's ISUr resume. No team provided a quality win for us except WSU. If this were a convo about last year's ISUr resume or the 5 years prior then sure no room to talk...

However, this topic is about this year and why we did not get an at large...
The other 8 teams absolutely impacted this league only getting 1 in. We were 17-1 in Conference. When was the last Valley team to have that record and NOT get into the big dance? Our league was very bad 3-10 this year.

You challenge a pretty well understood point about this year's version of the MVC with random stats about the past 7 years. Head scratching.

I challenge nothing about this year's version of the MVC. I challenge an ISU fan complaining about this year's version of the league because over the past 7 years they have been as much a part of the problem.
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby Play Angry » March 12th, 2017, 8:38 pm

Next year's numbers for the middle and lower tiers of the league will be even worse. There is no fix in sight.

I won't be surprised if WSU is the only top 100 team next year.
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby Cdizzle » March 12th, 2017, 9:00 pm

The Valley is officially a 1-bid league.

Help me AAC, you're my only hope.
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby Stickboy46 » March 12th, 2017, 9:01 pm

Someone quoted Muller as stating that he called 25 of the tournament teams to try to schedule a game, all said no.
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby Rollbird5 » March 12th, 2017, 9:41 pm

Stickboy46 wrote:Someone quoted Muller as stating that he called 25 of the tournament teams to try to schedule a game, all said no.


Yup. Really not much you can do when top teams refuse to play you. He even said he was trying to schedule home and home's with Dayton and VCU and they wouldn't do it.
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby BirdsEyeView » March 12th, 2017, 9:43 pm

Cdizzle wrote:I challenge nothing about this year's version of the MVC. I challenge an ISU fan complaining about this year's version of the league because over the past 7 years they have been as much a part of the problem.


Those are mutually exclusive issues. This thread is entitled bubble watch...not bubble watch 2016, or 2015 or 2014....etc.

Why are we arguing this Cdizzle? I did not make you a 10 seed...tweet to @MSUAD if you want to be passively aggressive
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby Red » March 13th, 2017, 8:40 am

I am very disappointed but not surprised. The Valley will likely be a one bid league pretty much every year going forward. It's about time we all realize that.
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby TheAsianSensation » March 13th, 2017, 9:06 pm

How tough is it for a good mid-major team to get a quality home game against a power conference team of value? A study.

A comprehensive list of true road games played by Power 6 teams, against midmajors.

I'm defining mid-majors as teams not in the top 9 conferences (Big 6 plus AAC, A-10, MWC).

24 total games:
Virginia @ UNC-Greensboro (Greensboro was slated to host a NCAA regional at time of scheduling)
Wake Forest @ UNC-Greensboro (Greensboro was slated to host a NCAA regional at time of scheduling)
Louisville @ Grand Canyon
Miami @ North Florida
North Carolina @ Hawaii (UNC played this game on the way to the Maui Inv.)
North Carolina @ Tulane
Oklahoma St @ Wichita St
Villanova @ Penn (part of the Big 5 tournament; this is a road game in name only)
St John's @ Tulane
Butler @ Indiana St
Rutgers @ Stony Brook
Indiana @ IPFW
Ohio St @ Navy (season opener made-for-TV event highlighting the military)
Vanderbilt @ Middle Tennessee
Tennessee @ East Tennessee St
Auburn @ UAB
Georgia @ Oakland
Florida @ North Florida (Florida had its arena unavailable early part of the year)
Washington @ Gonzaga
Colorado @ BYU
USC @ San Diego
Colorado @ Portland
Washington @ Seattle
Oregon St @ Charlotte

Of those 24, we can easily throw out Gonzaga and Wichita St, who are well established. I also think BYU falls into this category. 2 ACC teams played games in the arena that was supposed to host 1st round games this week, so throw out those 2 games for G'boro. UNC played Hawaii on the way to Maui and Florida only played UNF on the road because of their unique stadium situation. Nova/Penn was part of the Big 5, OSU/Navy was contrived for TV.

Once you do all this, here is the list of road games. The list of legitimate road games, taken by a big school against a little school, with no outside influence to do so. These are the games where the teams willingly went on the road. 15 games:
Louisville @ Grand Canyon
Miami @ North Florida
North Carolina @ Tulane
St John's @ Tulane
Butler @ Indiana St
Rutgers @ Stony Brook
Indiana @ IPFW
Vanderbilt @ Middle Tennessee
Tennessee @ East Tennessee St
Auburn @ UAB
Georgia @ Oakland
USC @ San Diego
Colorado @ Portland
Washington @ Seattle
Oregon St @ Charlotte

What's really **** is looking at preseason predictions. Grand Canyon is ineligible for psotseason...Tulane, Indiana St, IPFW, UAB, San Diego, Portland, Seattle, Charlotte were all expected to be awful. Non-entities.

So let's narrow the list further. Road games against mid-majors who were expected to be GOOD. Games where the power team was taking a legitimate risk. 5 games.

Miami @ North Florida
Rutgers @ Stony Brook
Vanderbilt @ Middle Tennessee
Tennessee @ East Tennessee St
Georgia @ Oakland

Now, Tennessee was expected to be bad, and Rutgers is Rutgers. Take them off the list.

Miami @ North Florida
Vanderbilt @ Middle Tennessee
Georgia @ Oakland

Why is this list relevant? This is the list that is relevant to Dan Muller. He has a team with legit at-large hopes. He is looking for an opponent who can provide resume value. Of all the relevant power conference teams in the country, there were exactly 3 instances of a quality power team willingly scheduling a road game at a good mid-major team. And even in 2 of them, UNF and Oakland don't have realistic at-large hopes. If you narrow the list to road games played at mid-majors with realistic at-large hopes, you're down to one:

Vanderbilt @ Middle Tennessee

Now I did make the executive decision to remove Wichita, BYU, and Gonzaga from the list along the way...so you can add in a few more. But this point isn't about them. Wichita, while it can struggle to get teams...they did get Atlantis and both Oklahomas. They could use more, but they can get enough. The point is how to get these games when you're Illinois St.
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby SubGod22 » March 13th, 2017, 9:16 pm

Why did you include Tulane when they're a part of the 9 conferences you weren't including as mid-major? I know they suck, as you pointed out and ended up tossing anyway, but I'm not sure why you included them to begin with.
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby TheAsianSensation » March 13th, 2017, 9:19 pm

SubGod22 wrote:Why did you include Tulane when they're a part of the 9 conferences you weren't including as mid-major? I know they suck, as you pointed out and ended up tossing anyway, but I'm not sure why you included them to begin with.

Oops, good point. I mean, in spirit they deserve to be included, right? :?
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Re: Bubble watch

Postby Wufan » March 14th, 2017, 5:35 am

TheAsianSensation wrote:How tough is it for a good mid-major team to get a quality home game against a power conference team of value? A study.

A comprehensive list of true road games played by Power 6 teams, against midmajors.

I'm defining mid-majors as teams not in the top 9 conferences (Big 6 plus AAC, A-10, MWC).

24 total games:
Virginia @ UNC-Greensboro (Greensboro was slated to host a NCAA regional at time of scheduling)
Wake Forest @ UNC-Greensboro (Greensboro was slated to host a NCAA regional at time of scheduling)
Louisville @ Grand Canyon
Miami @ North Florida
North Carolina @ Hawaii (UNC played this game on the way to the Maui Inv.)
North Carolina @ Tulane
Oklahoma St @ Wichita St
Villanova @ Penn (part of the Big 5 tournament; this is a road game in name only)
St John's @ Tulane
Butler @ Indiana St
Rutgers @ Stony Brook
Indiana @ IPFW
Ohio St @ Navy (season opener made-for-TV event highlighting the military)
Vanderbilt @ Middle Tennessee
Tennessee @ East Tennessee St
Auburn @ UAB
Georgia @ Oakland
Florida @ North Florida (Florida had its arena unavailable early part of the year)
Washington @ Gonzaga
Colorado @ BYU
USC @ San Diego
Colorado @ Portland
Washington @ Seattle
Oregon St @ Charlotte

Of those 24, we can easily throw out Gonzaga and Wichita St, who are well established. I also think BYU falls into this category. 2 ACC teams played games in the arena that was supposed to host 1st round games this week, so throw out those 2 games for G'boro. UNC played Hawaii on the way to Maui and Florida only played UNF on the road because of their unique stadium situation. Nova/Penn was part of the Big 5, OSU/Navy was contrived for TV.

Once you do all this, here is the list of road games. The list of legitimate road games, taken by a big school against a little school, with no outside influence to do so. These are the games where the teams willingly went on the road. 15 games:
Louisville @ Grand Canyon
Miami @ North Florida
North Carolina @ Tulane
St John's @ Tulane
Butler @ Indiana St
Rutgers @ Stony Brook
Indiana @ IPFW
Vanderbilt @ Middle Tennessee
Tennessee @ East Tennessee St
Auburn @ UAB
Georgia @ Oakland
USC @ San Diego
Colorado @ Portland
Washington @ Seattle
Oregon St @ Charlotte

What's really **** is looking at preseason predictions. Grand Canyon is ineligible for psotseason...Tulane, Indiana St, IPFW, UAB, San Diego, Portland, Seattle, Charlotte were all expected to be awful. Non-entities.

So let's narrow the list further. Road games against mid-majors who were expected to be GOOD. Games where the power team was taking a legitimate risk. 5 games.

Miami @ North Florida
Rutgers @ Stony Brook
Vanderbilt @ Middle Tennessee
Tennessee @ East Tennessee St
Georgia @ Oakland

Now, Tennessee was expected to be bad, and Rutgers is Rutgers. Take them off the list.

Miami @ North Florida
Vanderbilt @ Middle Tennessee
Georgia @ Oakland

Why is this list relevant? This is the list that is relevant to Dan Muller. He has a team with legit at-large hopes. He is looking for an opponent who can provide resume value. Of all the relevant power conference teams in the country, there were exactly 3 instances of a quality power team willingly scheduling a road game at a good mid-major team. And even in 2 of them, UNF and Oakland don't have realistic at-large hopes. If you narrow the list to road games played at mid-majors with realistic at-large hopes, you're down to one:

Vanderbilt @ Middle Tennessee

Now I did make the executive decision to remove Wichita, BYU, and Gonzaga from the list along the way...so you can add in a few more. But this point isn't about them. Wichita, while it can struggle to get teams...they did get Atlantis and both Oklahomas. They could use more, but they can get enough. The point is how to get these games when you're Illinois St.


Very interesting! This should be on cbssports.com
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