RacerJoeD wrote:
I disagree with football being the major driver for realignment. That may be true for the Big 12, but for the Horizon? But that doesn't really matter to the conversation at hand.
If the two teams can't be the reason why the WAC gets better, why would they be the reason the Horizon gets better? Or the MVC for that matter? Especially when one takes into account all the resasons you listed.
Football is still a massive driver of realignment at the MVC, Summit, OVC and HL levels. Most of the fans at this level are just too blind/ignorant to acknowledge and see it.
To show you how intertwined this all is I will involve the OVC, Summit, WAC, MVC, MVFC and potentially D2 and the NEC all from one move - Valpo to the MVC. A "non-football" school moving to a non-football conference.
1. Valpo moves to the MVC leaving a spot in the HL - a non football league
2. As part of the move the MVC indicates that a move to 12 is imminent and the heaviest favorite for spot 11 is a football school from the OVC - Murray State. Likely a portion of the reason the MVC didn't go to 12 with Murray State up from is the OVC not willing to let football stay an affiliate member and the MVFC no ready to add another member as soon as would be needed. (We'll get back to this real soon)
3. As a reaction to Valpo leaving the Horizon is exploring it's options - and added 1 already in IUPUI. That means the Summit (a conference already on the ledge of disaster due to the FB/non FB and geography split they are facing) is down a member. It seems far too logical to pass that IPFW isn't far behind on the Horizon train. That hurts the Summit even more - doubly so as IPFW as they play baseball and them leaving puts the Summit at 5 baseball schools, which triggers a 2 year probation period to get back to 6 baseball schools or lose the autobid.
Here's were it gets confusing and football really starts to play in as the Summit/OVC/WAC and even Big Sky start to come into it
4. The Summit is in trouble. They need baseball schools and members. Quality would be nice, but they likely won't get to be too picky. This likely is where the WAC and Summit try to cannibalize each other, with the Summit probably "winning". UMKC, UTRGV, Chicago State and the WAC disolving into the SL and WCC.
OR the Dakota's get what they want - and are pushing for - the Summit adds football as a sport. That means USD, SDSU, NDSU and UND (joining in 2020) are all gone from the MVFC. They likely grab Southern Utah, Northern Colorado, Weber State and maybe Cal Poly as a FB only member, and recreate the old Great West conference. This would also test NMSU's desire to continue FBS as an independant. The new SL would likely go after NMSU and GCU as well. This would have a massive impact in a couple ways
The WAC is dead. The Big Sky got smaller and lost football schools. The Missouri Valley is "okay", but the MVFC (an by proxy) got a bit shakey. Not too bad, but a bid. There are still enough members left for an autobid with UNI, SIU, ISUR, ISUB, YSU, MSU. It's possible that WIU gets to hang around as a 7th member as well - if the HL takes them with IPFW as part of their expansion
WIU won't be able to afford sending their teams to Utah, Arizona, Colorado, etc... multiple times per year. The Horizon makes sense for everyone.
The MVC then has an easier path to take Murray State as the football side opens up easier. That would give the MVFC 8 teams - UNI, SIU, ISUX2, MSU X2, YSU, and WIU. Best case would be for the MVC to add Stephen F Austin along with Murray State. That gives 9 football members (perfect number) to the MVFC and 12 to the MVC. Make football an MVC sport at that point. Start to insulate the schools from outside factors - like having half you members in a one sport conference that could implode at any moment because it's made of 3 other conferences (HL, MVC and SL).
Better yet, Drake and Valpo nut up and play big boy D1 football with the rest of us then add a school like UALR or UT-Arlington with Murray State. But that will never happen.
The OVC might grab WIU when Murray State becomes a MVC/MVFC member. They might grab a D2 move up. They could grab some ASUN/NEC teams (just like the HL)to fill holes in their membership.
I know that sounds extreme, but's not. The SL and WAC are on utter life support and when they implode it's going to get rocky around the MM level - and football will drive it to a large extent.
It's why I hate the MVC - especially Drake, UE, Bradley and possibly Valpo's stance on football schools. They see it as nothing except a drain that holds ADs back - yet as we've shown many times it's the schools with that attitude killing the MVC the last decade.
What the MVC should do is this
Bradley
Drake
Evansville
Illinois State
Indiana State
Loyola
Missouri State
Northern Iowa
Southern Illinois
Valpo
PLUS
Murray State
Stephan F Austin
Let the Summit schools take their programs elsewhere. Have an MVFC of
Illinois State
Indiana State
Missouri State
Murray State
Northern Iowa
Southern Illinois
Stephan F Austin
Youngstown State
Western Illinois - if they can work into the HL.
That's a real good basketball conference.
It's a good enough football conference for what it would need to be.
It keeps football schools happy.
The basketball side should be happy with additions like Valpo, Murray State and SFA to the basketball side of things.
Murray State and SFA have baseball.
SFA half gives Missouri State a semi regional travel partner.
However, we know that Drake and Evansville will never go for that.