MVC team standing prediction

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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby bufan741777 » January 3rd, 2018, 10:47 am

Dansen wrote:Even though I don't like RPI, it is comforting to note that the MVC now has 5 teams in the top 100, and every team in the top 200

Mo State: 66
Illinois State: 75
Northern Iowa: 81
Loyola: 83
Evansville: 100
Bradley: 125
Southern Illinois: 147
Drake: 157
Valparaiso: 168
Indiana State: 194

This being said if Northern Iowa keeps playing like this I do expect them to drop, but I honestly expect Bradley to rise as well.


It is very reassuring. There were a lot of unknowns when WSU left and I think that the conference as a whole has done great recently.
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Re: MVC team standing prediction

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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby Adunk33 » January 4th, 2018, 8:54 am

BradleyFan71 wrote:
Adunk33 wrote:
Blers wrote:I know Illinois States been hit hard with injuries, but am I wrong in saying their success may largely hinge on the trio of Yarborough, Fayne, and Evans all being healthy? I know they’ve all missed a bit of time to varying degrees but from what I’ve seen losing one over an extended stretch could really derail the team.


ILST is heavily reliant on their big three. However, the team steps up when they are struck with adversity. Someone mentioned earlier in the thread about Bradley's drubbing at Ole Miss. Illinois State went there and won without Fayne, Bruninga, and Yarbrough for the last 3.5 of regulation and all of OT. Illinois State's largest player was a 6'5, 170 lb former walk-on.

Evans didn't play against Indiana State, and they picked up the win, thanks to big games from freshman Bruninga and sophomore Hein.

Losing all three, the Birds don't stand a chance. Lose two, probably still don't stand a chance, lose one, the team can function because someone will step up. However, think back to those good Wichita State teams. Think if you would have taken away Van Vleet, Baker, and (name any other player, really)...those teams would have been incredibly different, so its kind of a silly argument to make. Now, I'm knocking on all the wood I can find because I too, would not want to think about Redbird hoops without those three.

So the standings. Two games in and their are two big surprises for me. The Iowa teams. Drake and UNI have gone different directions to start the season. I mentioned over on Redbirdfan.net that UNI will have a late push, probably get the 5 or 6 seed in STL and win a game. Drake will slip some but have senior guards, which is important to have in this league.

I think that if you can get to 9 wins, you will not be playing Thursday night. I think anyone who does not play Thursday night will have a serious chance to win the whole thing. Valpo is a team I see making their Arch Madness Debut at 8:30 p.m. on Thursday night. I think SIU will be playing Thursday too. For the last two slots, I think it could be anyone except Illinois State, Mo State, UNI, and LuC, leaving Bradley, UE, INST, and Drake to fight away from those two spots. This is one of those years where 1-6 will have a serious shot and seeding really doesn't matter if you are in that range.

My issue with Bradley is not the I-74 rivalry, because it hasn't really been one lately, but it is their schedule. As an ILST fan, I know what an inflated record looks like (see every Tim Jankovich coached ISU team). He won 20 games almost every year he was at ILST, and had nothing to show for it because they were playing a 300+ noncon SOS. That is what BU has done this year. Their "Key" non-con games have been at San Diego State (big loss), and at Ole Miss (big loss). Had they been battle tested, they probably would have won at Drake (who has played Iowa, Minnesota, Wake Forrest, among other more challenging games). The win over UNI was impressive, but we'll know more when Bradley plays ILST, Mo State, and Loyola.

Given their tough schedule, I'm wondering why UNI did not look at all prepared for a game against what many feel is a Thursday Bradley team. I know it isn't their coach. Could it be a tough schedule really doesn't mean anything when it comes to conference play?


You know, that very well could be. I commented on Ole Miss vs BU vs ISU, but then seeing how ILST played at Drake yesterday leads me to believe I was off. Bradley held Drake to just 7 three pointers at Drake. ILST gave up 15 in the demolishing they took yesterday.

Yesterday, Drake reminded me of the early-mid 2010's Northern Iowa teams. The only thing they are missing is a big man. They move the ball really well, make shots, and are a team led by 5 vets. Look out for the Bulldogs, are they peaking too early? Stay tuned. I have Drake top 6 in the conference, staying off of Thursday.

Of course, every team wants to win the conference, but I'd say the secondary goal is to not play Thursday. Outside the bottom 4, I'm not sure seeding matters much.
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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby Mikovio » January 4th, 2018, 12:57 pm

The way I see it there's 3 tiers of seeding

Top 2 - Get a de facto bye to the semis
3-6 - You have a chance but tough games all 3 days
7-10 - Thursday and screwed-- nobody's winning 4 games in 4 days

Also better to be on the top bracket (1,4,5) so you start earlier and thus more time to rest between games.
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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby Kip Dynamite » January 4th, 2018, 1:32 pm

Its still very early but if I had to rank teams as of this moment (not based solely on their respective records) it would look like this:

Mo State
Drake
Bradley
UNI
SIU
Loyola
Illinois State
Evansville
Indiana State
Valpo
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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby bufan741777 » January 4th, 2018, 2:15 pm

Kip Dynamite wrote:Its still very early but if I had to rank teams as of this moment (not based solely on their respective records) it would look like this:

Mo State
Drake
Bradley
UNI
SIU
Loyola
Illinois State
Evansville
Indiana State
Valpo


I think UNI and ISUr should be flipped. ISUr tends to barely win games and looked better in the beginning of the season but they have significant wins this season. I by no means feel that they will end up playing on Thursday. I think UNI will turn their play around but these early losses may keep them playing on Thursday. There is a good chance they will be 0-3 after today's game. If they win today I would put them in the 5-6 range.
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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby BCPanther » January 4th, 2018, 3:10 pm

bufan741777 wrote:
Kip Dynamite wrote:Its still very early but if I had to rank teams as of this moment (not based solely on their respective records) it would look like this:

Mo State
Drake
Bradley
UNI
SIU
Loyola
Illinois State
Evansville
Indiana State
Valpo


I think UNI and ISUr should be flipped. ISUr tends to barely win games and looked better in the beginning of the season but they have significant wins this season. I by no means feel that they will end up playing on Thursday. I think UNI will turn their play around but these early losses may keep them playing on Thursday. There is a good chance they will be 0-3 after today's game. If they win today I would put them in the 5-6 range.


SMU, NC State, UNLV and UT Arlington aren't significant wins? Good to know. Even with a loss tonight and as frustrating as UNI always seems to be this time of year, they won't be playing on Thursday. Starting to approach the Creighton streak for years avoiding Thursday. I believe Creighton got to 16 before they left and this will be 14 for UNI.
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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby musiccitybulldog » January 4th, 2018, 3:37 pm

Espn Bracketology .... 15 seed (so far) ..... http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology

One of the Bulldogs better wins was Wake Forest, they played North Carolina down to the wire, UNC squeaked it out.
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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby Old School MVC » January 4th, 2018, 3:50 pm

BCPanther wrote:
bufan741777 wrote:
SMU, NC State, UNLV and UT Arlington aren't significant wins? Good to know. Even with a loss tonight and as frustrating as UNI always seems to be this time of year, they won't be playing on Thursday. Starting to approach the Creighton streak for years avoiding Thursday. I believe Creighton got to 16 before they left and this will be 14 for UNI.


An awful BOLD statement from a fan of an 0-2 team. I know you usually start off slow in conference (I can not figure that out either), but those years there are usually quite a few poor teams in the Valley. Not sure that is the case this year.
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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby bufan741777 » January 4th, 2018, 4:00 pm

Old School MVC wrote:
BCPanther wrote:
bufan741777 wrote:
SMU, NC State, UNLV and UT Arlington aren't significant wins? Good to know. Even with a loss tonight and as frustrating as UNI always seems to be this time of year, they won't be playing on Thursday. Starting to approach the Creighton streak for years avoiding Thursday. I believe Creighton got to 16 before they left and this will be 14 for UNI.


An awful BOLD statement from a fan of an 0-2 team. I know you usually start off slow in conference (I can not figure that out either), but those years there are usually quite a few poor teams in the Valley. Not sure that is the case this year.


They are going to have to pull off some upsets now. Tonight's game is very intriguing to me! This is a big one for the Panthers to turn things around before losses pile up.
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Re: MVC team standing prediction

Postby BCPanther » January 4th, 2018, 4:10 pm

Old School MVC wrote:
BCPanther wrote:
bufan741777 wrote:
SMU, NC State, UNLV and UT Arlington aren't significant wins? Good to know. Even with a loss tonight and as frustrating as UNI always seems to be this time of year, they won't be playing on Thursday. Starting to approach the Creighton streak for years avoiding Thursday. I believe Creighton got to 16 before they left and this will be 14 for UNI.


An awful BOLD statement from a fan of an 0-2 team. I know you usually start off slow in conference (I can not figure that out either), but those years there are usually quite a few poor teams in the Valley. Not sure that is the case this year.


2-6 turned into 11-7. 0-5 turned into 9-9 and a 3 seed. Sure the bottom of the league is better but until somebody else surpasses UNIs consistency, I don't think any of us should just assume UNI is a Thursday team because they started 0-2. This roster isn't really any different than the last two years talent wise, just a bit less experienced in the guard court.
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