2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby MVC1972 » February 9th, 2018, 1:43 pm

Why is it assumed that UE and Valpo will be in the play in games? This league is wide open. UE lost to Loyola on the road by a slim margin. Several of the losses UE had could've went both ways.
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby Bear4Life » February 9th, 2018, 1:47 pm

MVC1972 wrote:Why is it assumed that UE and Valpo will be in the play in games? This league is wide open. UE lost to Loyola on the road by a slim margin. Several of the losses UE had could've went both ways.


Well Valpo is 3-10...They would have to win out to get to 8-10 and even that probably wouldn't get them out of the PiG, in fact I think the are a 100% lock regardless of outcomes at this point.

Evansville is not a lock to be playing Thursday, but tomorrow's game @ MO State is of major significance. If Evansville loses, they would be in a tough spot to avoid Thursday due to tiebreakers (RPI) issues. If they win, then they have a good shot to avoid.
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby MVC1972 » February 9th, 2018, 1:50 pm

True..I see UE splitting series with Loyola and will win at Ford Center. Will be a fun Arch Madness to attend this year. With Wichita State's departure...it's wide open. Any given night...
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby E-Villan » February 9th, 2018, 5:47 pm

Bear4Life wrote:
MVC1972 wrote:Why is it assumed that UE and Valpo will be in the play in games? This league is wide open. UE lost to Loyola on the road by a slim margin. Several of the losses UE had could've went both ways.


Well Valpo is 3-10...They would have to win out to get to 8-10 and even that probably wouldn't get them out of the PiG, in fact I think the are a 100% lock regardless of outcomes at this point.

Evansville is not a lock to be playing Thursday, but tomorrow's game @ MO State is of major significance. If Evansville loses, they would be in a tough spot to avoid Thursday due to tiebreakers (RPI) issues. If they win, then they have a good shot to avoid.


Completely agree. For us to avoid Thursday, we are going to have win road games at both Missouri State and Indiana State. Even with that, we would still need to at minimum split our two home games, Loyola and SIU, and that wouldn't guarantee it. None of those games are easy, and running the table is daunting, especially without Dru.
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby Hacksaw » February 12th, 2018, 11:50 am

The final 1,048,576 scenarios (unweighted):
Image
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby Hacksaw » February 12th, 2018, 11:50 am

Weighted seeding odds:
Image
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby Adunk33 » February 12th, 2018, 1:56 pm

Hacksaw wrote:Weighted seeding odds:
Image


Do these seedings take into account injuries?
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby BirdsEyeView » February 12th, 2018, 2:43 pm

:+1:

I can't believe we are favored 70/30 over Drake without Evans and Fayne
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby Hacksaw » February 12th, 2018, 3:24 pm

Adunk33 wrote:
Do these seedings take into account injuries?


The odds are based off of Sagarin's Predictor ratings. To my knowledge, there is no account of injuries in these ratings.
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Re: 2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Postby pafan » February 12th, 2018, 4:15 pm

Hacksaw is correct. PREDICTOR does use any data about rosters, such as injuries, suspensions, players facing bench warrants, etc.
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