Could UNI Play Their Way Back on the Bubble?

[valleychamp]

I know, it must be hard, as a redbird fan, to understand or even conceive of the idea of an at-large bid...

I know when you are not going to get one. Like UNI this season. It is a matter of fact, its not even a possibility.

Ok.

[squirrel]

There is zero chance for any MVC team with 10 losses to ever get an at large bid. It isn't going to happen...period.

It's happened before:

Bradley was 20-10 in 05/06 when they got an at-large bid.

UNI was 21-10 in 04/05 when they got an at-large bid.

One very big difference. In 2004-05, there were 4 MVC teams in the RPI 50, in 2005-06, there were 6.

In 2011-12 there are 2 as of right now. There simply aren't enough games in that upper 1-50 bracket at this point to make the math favorable. As alluded to, though, UNI can help themselves out. They also have zero margin for error.

[cpacmel]

There is zero chance for any MVC team with 10 losses to ever get an at large bid. It isn't going to happen...period.

It's happened before:

Bradley was 20-10 in 05/06 when they got an at-large bid.

UNI was 21-10 in 04/05 when they got an at-large bid.

One very big difference. In 2004-05, there were 4 MVC teams in the RPI 50, in 2005-06, there were 6.

In 2011-12 there are 2 as of right now. There simply aren't enough games in that upper 1-50 bracket at this point to make the math favorable. As alluded to, though, UNI can help themselves out. They also have zero margin for error.

That might be true for 05/06, but that wasn't the case in 04/05. SIU was the only team that was in the top 50.
http://realtimerpi.com/2004-2005/rpi_mvc_Men.html

[uniftw]

There is zero chance for any MVC team with 10 losses to ever get an at large bid. It isn't going to happen...period.

It's happened before:

Bradley was 20-10 in 05/06 when they got an at-large bid.

UNI was 21-10 in 04/05 when they got an at-large bid.

One very big difference. In 2004-05, there were 4 MVC teams in the RPI 50, in 2005-06, there were 6.

In 2011-12 there are 2 as of right now. There simply aren't enough games in that upper 1-50 bracket at this point to make the math favorable. As alluded to, though, UNI can help themselves out. They also have zero margin for error.

3 teams in the top 50...UNI being one of them.

[MSUDuo]

It's happened before:

Bradley was 20-10 in 05/06 when they got an at-large bid.

UNI was 21-10 in 04/05 when they got an at-large bid.

One very big difference. In 2004-05, there were 4 MVC teams in the RPI 50, in 2005-06, there were 6.

In 2011-12 there are 2 as of right now. There simply aren't enough games in that upper 1-50 bracket at this point to make the math favorable. As alluded to, though, UNI can help themselves out. They also have zero margin for error.

3 teams in the top 50...UNI being one of them.

51 right now but if UNI is going to make its case for an at-large, they will be safely into the top50

[cpacmel]

FYI, Warren Nolan has UNI as the 2nd team OUT in his most recent bracket projection

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2012/projection

[squirrel]

One very big difference. In 2004-05, there were 4 MVC teams in the RPI 50, in 2005-06, there were 6.

In 2011-12 there are 2 as of right now. There simply aren't enough games in that upper 1-50 bracket at this point to make the math favorable. As alluded to, though, UNI can help themselves out. They also have zero margin for error.

That might be true for 05/06, but that wasn't the case in 04/05. SIU was the only team that was in the top 50.
http://realtimerpi.com/2004-2005/rpi_mvc_Men.html

Well sure, if you want to count postseason, which Realtimerpi.com does.

But Creighton finished the regular season (including the MVCT) at 44 and Wichita 45 respectively.

http://basketballprospectus.com/rpi.php?y=2005

[cpacmel]

One very big difference. In 2004-05, there were 4 MVC teams in the RPI 50, in 2005-06, there were 6.

In 2011-12 there are 2 as of right now. There simply aren't enough games in that upper 1-50 bracket at this point to make the math favorable. As alluded to, though, UNI can help themselves out. They also have zero margin for error.

That might be true for 05/06, but that wasn't the case in 04/05. SIU was the only team that was in the top 50.
http://realtimerpi.com/2004-2005/rpi_mvc_Men.html

Well sure, if you want to count postseason, which Realtimerpi.com does.

But Creighton finished the regular season (including the MVCT) at 44 and Wichita 45 respectively.

http://basketballprospectus.com/rpi.php?y=2005

Okay, so UNI was 2-6 that year against the top 50

This year they are 3-3.

They have a top 50 game left with Wichita State

Isn't your logic they won't have the same amount of top 50 games as 04/05? While 7 isn't 8 games against the top 50, with any luck what so ever, they get another top 50 game in the Shockers or the Jays in St. Louis.

And even if they don't, that 4-3 or 3-4 record against the top 50 looks just as good to the committee as that 2-6 did back in 05.

[squirrel]

I'm not talking at all about performance versus. I'm simply talking the mathematical benefit from the # of games.

[cpacmel]

I'm not talking at all about performance versus. I'm simply talking the mathematical benefit from the # of games.

So that 1 additional top 50 makes that big of a difference?

And it makes a bigger difference than 2 top 50 wins vs 3 or 4 top 50 wins?

Sorry, I don't see that.

And for UNI to play their way back into contention, they are probably going to have to see the Shockers or Jays in St. Louis anyways.

That would be an 8th game against the top 50. Same as before.

BTW, it ALWAYS comes back to Performance.